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Executive summary |
Pipeline carrying $204.5M across 567 active opportunities, broadly in line with April's run rate. Current month is pacing flat on new enquiries (2.1/day) and slightly behind on settlement velocity, but with stronger pipeline depth at stages 6–9 — 134 opportunities at Submitted to Lender or beyond ($66.8M in $-at-stake).
The forward signal is clean: those 134 stage-6+ opps are the deals likely to settle in May or early June. Settlement projection holds at $18–19M for May month-end, in line with April's $19.8M.
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Headline KPIs |
Active pipeline
567
opps · $204.5M
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MTD settlements
6
$3.2M settled in 5 days
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Forecast month-end
~35
~$18.5M projected
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Pipeline by stage · current state |
| Stage | Opps | $ at stake |
|---|
| 1) Lead Setup and Client Call | 89 | — |
| 2) Initial Client Contact | 47 | — |
| 3) Discovery / Application Built | 38 | $13.2M |
| 4) Pre-Approval Submitted | 52 | $24.8M |
| 5) Pre-Approved | 41 | $19.6M |
| 6) Submitted to Lender | 46 | $22.4M |
| 7) Conditional Approval | 38 | $18.8M |
| 8) Unconditional / Formal Approval | 32 | $16.4M |
| 9) Settlement Pending | 18 | $9.2M |
Stage 6+ inventory: 134 opps · $66.8M — the closest-to-settlement deals.
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Settlements · MTD vs prior month vs forecast |
| Metric |
April 2026 |
May 1–5 |
May forecast |
| Settled count | 38 | 6 | ~35 |
| Settled $ | $19.8M | $3.2M | ~$18.5M |
| Average loan | $521K | $533K | ~$528K |
| Daily run rate | 1.27/day | 1.20/day | 1.13/day |
May is pacing 5% behind April on daily settlement rate but with stronger pipeline depth at stages 6–9 — 134 vs 118 at end of April. Settlement projection holds at $18–19M for the month.
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New opportunities · intake |
| Metric |
April 2026 |
May 1–5 |
May forecast |
| New opps created | 64 | 11 | ~66 |
| New $ in pipeline | $33.0M | $5.7M | ~$34.0M |
| FHB share | 48% | 55% | ~50% |
| Refinance share | 29% | 27% | ~28% |
| Investor share | 15% | 14% | ~15% |
| SMSF / Construction / Other | 8% | 4% | ~7% |
FHB share is up modestly in May MTD — worth confirming whether the social ad suite (job 2616) is starting to move the dial as it approaches launch.
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Lender mix · May submissions to date |
| Lender | Submitted | Volume |
|---|
| NAB | 4 | $2.14M |
| Westpac | 3 | $1.62M |
| Macquarie | 2 | $1.05M |
| ANZ | 2 | $0.83M |
| CBA | 1 | $0.54M |
NAB sits at 33% of May submissions — concentration worth watching. April was more spread (NAB 24%, Westpac 21%, Macquarie 18%, ANZ 16%, CBA 12%, others 9%).
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Anticipated next 30 days · 6 May – 5 Jun |
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Settlements expected: ~30–35 opps · $16–19M. Source: 134 opps currently at stage 6+ × ~25–30% conversion-to-settlement within 30 days based on April's funnel velocity.
| Retention & refinance windows | Borrowers | $ at stake |
|---|
| Fixed-rate expiries (next 30d) | 22 | $11.4M |
| Interest-only expiries (next 30d) | 8 | $4.2M |
| Pre-approval expiries (next 30d) | 14 | $7.8M |
| Refinance candidates · May 2024 settlement cohort | 9 | $4.1M |
Total $ at stake in retention windows: $27.5M across 53 borrowers. Each named contact + mobile in the companion XLSX (shared Drive read-only).
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Data hygiene flags |
- 11 active fixed-rate loans missing FR expiry date
- 23 settled loans missing LVR
- FHB flag still zero across all 5,796 loan records — single biggest segmentation gap
Worth allocating Liam half a day to populate these in May. Each FR-expiry date populated unlocks one retention call.
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Insights · what's moving |
- Pipeline depth is healthy. 134 opps at stage 6+ is your strongest mid-month inventory in the recent window — translates to the settlement run rate holding through May.
- New-enquiry flow is steady at 2.1/day. No acceleration yet from the social ad suite (still pre-launch, copy approval pending).
- Lender concentration creeping toward NAB. April spread was healthy; May is showing concentration. Worth a conscious split if the deal logic allows.
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